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 Overconfidence\uff09\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u5373\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u76f8\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u8fdc\u8981\u8d85\u8fc7\u5176\u4ed6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u6216\u9ad8\u7ba1\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u7ba1\u7406\u4e0b\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u5c06\u4f1a\u4f18\u4e8e\u6574\u4e2a\u80a1\u5e02\u751a\u81f3\u5176\u4ed6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u4f01\u4e1a\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u6216\u9ad8\u7ba1\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u96c6\u4e2d\u80a1\u6743\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u60dc\u552e\u5fc3\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5bcc\u6709\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\uff0c\u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u7ba1\u7406\u96c6\u4e2d\u80a1\u6743\u6295\u8d44\u65f6\u6b65\u5165\u8bef\u533a\u3002\u8f6f\u4ef6\u516c\u53f8\u7532\u9aa8\u6587\uff08Oracle>\uff09\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u57c3\u91cc\u68ee\uff08Larry  Ellison\uff09\u57282004\u5e741\u6708\u6839\u636e\u300a1934\u5e74\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u6cd5\u300b10b5-1 \u89c4\u5219\u5efa\u7acb\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u80a1\u6743\u9000\u51fa\u8ba1\u5212\u4e4b\u524d\u5c31\u66fe\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u8d70\u8fc7\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u5f2f\u8def\u4ed8\u51fa\u4e86\u4e0d\u83f2\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u30021998\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u7532\u9aa8\u6587\u80a1\u7968\u6025\u5267\u4e0a\u5347\u8ba9\u57c3\u91cc\u68ee\u5bf9\u516c\u53f8\u524d\u666f\u548c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u66f4\u52a0\u4fe1\u5fc3\u767e\u500d\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u7ef4\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u4e00\u5e74\u51e0\u5343\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u82b1\u9500\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u57c3\u91cc\u68ee\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u8d22\u52a1\u987e\u95ee\u9010\u6b65\u552e\u80a1\u5957\u73b0\u7684\u5fe0\u544a\u7f6e\u82e5\u7f54\u95fb\uff0c\u5e76\u5411\u94f6\u884c\u8d37\u6b3e10\u591a\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u88ab2000\u5e74\u590f\u5929\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\u60ca\u9192\u4f46\u53c8\u7f3a\u4e4f\u4e8b\u5148\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u57c3\u91cc\u68ee\uff0c\u53c8\u57282001\u5e741\u6708\u4ee532\u7f8e\u5143\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4e00\u53e3\u6c14\u5356\u6389\u4e86\u4ef7\u503c9\u4ebf\u591a\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7532\u9aa8\u6587\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u5f53\u540c\u6837\u88ab\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\u6ce2\u53ca\u5230\u7684\u7532\u9aa8\u6587\u516c\u53f8\u5bf9\u5916\u9884\u544a\u4e1a\u7ee9\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u653e\u7f13\u65f6\uff0c\u5176\u80a1\u7968\u8dcc\u5230\u4e86\u6bcf\u80a117\u7f8e\u5143\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3002\u55c5\u89c9\u7075\u654f\u7684\u80dc\u8bc9\u62bd\u6210\u6536\u8d39\uff08Contingent  Fee\uff09\u5f8b\u5e08\u4eec\u7acb\u5373\u6355\u6349\u5230\u4e86\u6572\u7af9\u6760\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u627e\u6765\u4e00\u6279\u540c\u671f\u5728\u7532\u9aa8\u6587\u80a1\u7968\u4e0a\u4e8f\u635f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5411\u6cd5\u9662\u8d77\u8bc9\uff0c\u5c06\u8d23\u4efb\u5f52\u7ed3\u4e3a\u57c3\u91cc\u68ee\u8bef\u5bfc\u548c\u975e\u6cd5\u5185\u5e55\u4ea4\u6613\u5e76\u7d22\u8981\u5de8\u989d\u8d54\u507f\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u5411\u539f\u544a\u652f\u4ed8\u4efb\u4f55\u8d54\u507f\u91d1\uff0c\u6025\u4e8e\u4ece\u96c6\u4f53\u8bc9\u8bbc\u5b98\u53f8\u4e2d\u8131\u8eab\u7684\u57c3\u91cc\u68ee\u6700\u7ec8\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u4ee5\u5411\u539f\u544a\u7684\u5f8b\u5e08\u56e2\u652f\u4ed8 2200\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8d39\u7528\u3001\u5e76\u5411\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5bb6\u65cf\u57fa\u91d1\u6350\u6b3e1\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u79bb\u5947\u6761\u6b3e\u548c\u89e3\u4e86\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6709\u4e86\u6559\u8bad\u7684\u57c3\u91cc\u68ee\u4ece2004\u5e743\u6708\u8d77\u5f00\u59cb\u5b9a\u671f\u51cf\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u6301\u6709\u7684\u7532\u9aa8\u6587\u80a1\u7968\uff08\u56fe1\uff09\uff0c\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5957\u73b0\u4e86\u4ef7\u503c\u5341\u51e0\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u6709\u610f\u601d\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f4d2000\u5e74\u8d22\u5bcc\u503c\u66fe\u4e00\u5ea6\u8d85\u8fc7\u6bd4\u5c14\u00b7\u76d6\u8328\u7684\u4ebf\u4e07\u5bcc\u7fc1\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u8eab\u5bb6\u53ea\u6709\u540e\u8005\u7684\u7ea61\/3\uff0c\u8db3\u89c1\u5176\u8d22\u5bcc\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u6ce2\u5e45\u4e4b\u5927\u3002\u5982\u679c\u542c\u53d6\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u8d22\u52a1\u987e\u95ee\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u65e9\u4e00\u4e9b\u5236\u5b9a\u4e86\u7532\u9aa8\u6587\u80a1\u7968\u5957\u73b0\u8ba1\u5212\u5e76\u4e25\u683c\u6267\u884c\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u57c3\u91cc\u68ee\u7684\u7ecf\u5386\u548c\u8d22\u5bcc\u6c34\u5e73\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent:0em;\" align=\"center\"><img src=\"wp-content\/uploads\/wenzhang\/w3-1.jpg\" width=\"920\" name=\"\u56fe\u5f621\" border=\"0\" align=\"bottom\" id=\"\u56fe\u5f621\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u9664\u4e86\u8d22\u5bcc\u4fdd\u503c\u8fd9\u4e00\u9996\u8981\u76ee\u6807\u4ee5\u5916\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u521b\u4e1a\u8005\u6216\u9ad8\u7ba1\u5728\u5236\u5b9a\u96c6\u4e2d\u80a1\u6743\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u9000\u51fa\u7b56\u7565\u65f6\u8fd8\u5e94\u8be5\u517c\u987e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u89c4\u5212\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u96c6\u4e2d\u6301\u80a1\u8005\u6839\u636e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u8f6c\u79fb\u610f\u613f\u548c\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u9057\u4ea7\u3001\u9988\u8d60\u548c\u9694\u4ee3\u8f6c\u79fb\u7b49\u7a0e\u8d1f\u7ea6\u675f\u73af\u5883\u6765\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u96c6\u4e2d\u80a1\u4efd\u7684\u51fa\u552e\u5b89\u6392\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u4f4d\u7f8e\u56fd\u7eb3\u7a0e\u7684\u8c37\u6b4c\uff08Google\uff09\u516c\u53f8\u534e\u4eba\u9ad8\u7ba1\u8ba1\u5212\u5c06\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u8d22\u5bcc\u9988\u8d60\u7ed9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5bb6\u4eba\u65f6\uff0c\u6709\u4e09\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\uff1a\u4e00\u3001\u5728\u8c37\u6b4c\u4e0a\u5e02\u524d\u5c06\u80a1\u7968\u76f4\u63a5\u9988\u8d60\uff1b\u4e8c\u3001\u7b49\u8c37\u6b4c\u4e0a\u5e02\u540e\u5c06\u80a1\u7968\u76f4\u63a5\u9988\u8d60\uff1b\u4e09\u3001\u7b49\u8c37\u6b4c\u4e0a\u5e02\u540e\u5c06\u80a1\u7968\u5356\u51fa\u7684\u6240\u5f97\u8fdb\u884c\u9988\u8d60\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7a0e\u6cd5\u89c4\u5b9a\uff0c\u4ed6\u6bcf\u5e74\u5411\u4efb\u610f\u4eba\u58eb\u514d\u7a0e\u9988\u8d60\u7684\u989d\u5ea6\u53ea\u67091.2\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e14\u5356\u51fa\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u8d44\u672c\u5229\u5f97\u7a0e\uff0c\u4f46\u5916\u56fd\u4eba\u51fa\u552e\u6240\u6301\u6709\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u65e0\u9700\u7f34\u7eb3\u4efb\u4f55\u5229\u5f97\u7a0e\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u96be\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\u5c3d\u7ba1\u53ef\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u5229\u5f97\u7a0e\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u4e34\u9988\u8d60\u7a0e\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e09\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\u65e2\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5229\u5f97\u7a0e\u53c8\u9762\u4e34\u9988\u8d60\u7a0e\uff1b\u53ea\u6709\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\u5177\u6709\u5c06\u5927\u7b14\u8d22\u5bcc\u514d\u7a0e\u9988\u8d60\u7684\u4f18\u70b9\u3002\u9057\u61be\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7684\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u548c\u65e9\u671f\u5458\u5de5\u5374\u4e0d\u80fd\u5728\u516c\u53f8\u4e0a\u5e02\u524d\u7740\u624b\u96c6\u4e2d\u6301\u80a1\u9000\u51fa\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u5168\u9762\u89c4\u5212\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e3b\u7684\u9002\u5f53\u9009\u62e9:\u4e0a\u5e02\u5e76\u5206\u671f\u3001\u5206\u6279\u91cf\u5957\u73b0<br \/><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><\/strong>\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d22\u5bcc\u7ba1\u7406\u987e\u95ee\u4eec\u4f1a\u5c06\u96c6\u4e2d\u80a1\u6743\u6295\u8d44\u6301\u6709\u8005\u5212\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u5927\u7c7b\uff0c\u5373\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u62e5\u6709\u63a7\u5236\u529b\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u6216\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e3b\u3001\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u6ca1\u6709\u63a7\u5236\u529b\u7684\u9ad8\u7ba1\uff0c\u6765\u8bbe\u8ba1\u548c\u5efa\u8bae\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9000\u51fa\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u63a7\u5236\u7740\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u6218\u7565\u51b3\u7b56\u3001\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u548c\u8d44\u4ea7\u5904\u7f6e\u7b49\u6743\u5229\uff0c\u96c6\u4e2d\u6301\u80a1\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e3b\u627f\u53d7\u80a1\u6743\u4e2d\u77ed\u671f\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u8f83\u5927\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u8d22\u5bcc\u5de8\u5e45\u7f29\u6c34\u540e\u4e1c\u5c71\u518d\u8d77\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u4e5f\u6bd4\u8f83\u5927\u3002\u6b63\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u7279\u6709\u7684\u957f\u671f\u6027\u548c\u6218\u7565\u6027\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u7684\u96c6\u4e2d\u80a1\u6743\u6295\u8d44\u9000\u51fa\u7b56\u7565\u901a\u5e38\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4f5c\u4f01\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u9000\u51fa\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u5206\u5de5\u7cbe\u7ec6\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u4f01\u4e1a\u5904\u4e8e\u521d\u521b\u3001\u624e\u6839\u3001\u6210\u957f\u8fd8\u662f\u6210\u719f\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5176\u80a1\u6743\u548c\u8d44\u4ea7\u90fd\u80fd\u8f83\u4e3a\u5bb9\u6613\u5730\u627e\u5230\u6f5c\u5728\u4e70\u4e3b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e3b\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u521b\u4e1a\u524d\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u89c4\u5212\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u9000\u51fa\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u56fe2\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img src=\"wp-content\/uploads\/wenzhang\/w3-2.jpg\" name=\"\u56fe\u5f622\" border=\"0\" align=\"bottom\" id=\"\u56fe\u5f622\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\n              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href=\"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/?p=718\" class=\"themebutton2\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/718"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=718"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/718\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3863,"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/718\/revisions\/3863"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=718"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=718"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=718"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}