{"id":4054,"date":"2014-04-17T11:13:00","date_gmt":"2014-04-17T03:13:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/?p=4054"},"modified":"2014-04-17T14:14:32","modified_gmt":"2014-04-17T06:14:32","slug":"%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e5%9c%a8%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e6%b3%a1%e6%b2%ab%e4%b8%ad%e6%b1%82%e7%94%9f%e5%ad%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/?p=4054","title":{"rendered":"\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e2d\u6c42\u751f\u5b58?"},"content":{"rendered":"<style type=\"text\/css\">\np{text-indent:2em;}\n<\/style>\n<div class=\"wenzhangdivbox\">\n<p>\u4e00\u3001\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u636e\u300a\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u8363\u300b\uff08Irrational Exuberance\uff09\u4e00\u4e66\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279 J. \u5e2d\u52d2\u6559\u6388\uff08Robert J. Shiller, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.econ.yale.edu\/~shiller\/ch\/ch-shiller.htm.b5\" target=\"_blank\">http:\/\/www.econ.yale.edu\/~shiller\/ch\/ch-shiller.htm.b5<\/a>\uff09\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7531\u4f17\u591a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u975e\u7406\u6027\u884c\u4e3a\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u91d1\u5b57\u5854\u9a97\u5c40(\u5e9e\u6c0f\u9a97\u5c40Ponzi Scheme)\u3002\u5f53\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u91cc\u8d5a\u5230\u94b1\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u901a\u8fc7\u5a92\u4f53\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u6216\u8005\u53e3\u8033\u76f8\u4f20\u7b49\u9014\u5f84\u6563\u5e03\u51fa\u53bb\u540e\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u4f1a\u88ab\u5438\u5f15\u8fdb\u6765\u52a0\u5165\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u961f\u4f0d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u80a1\u5e02\u8d5a\u94b1\u6548\u5e94\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u6025\u5267\u653e\u5927\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5438\u5f15\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u52a0\u5165\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5185\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4ef7\u503c\u5e76\u4e0d\u7531\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u9700\u6c42\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7531\u4e0a\u5e02\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u957f\u671f\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u5f53\u7531\u77ed\u671f\u9700\u6c42\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u8d85\u8fc7\u5176\u5185\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4ef7\u503c\u8fbe\u5230\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u65f6\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u201c\u77e5\u60c5\u201d\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f1a\u9010\u6b65\u5957\u73b0\u5e76\u64a4\u79bb\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u627f\u63a5\u4e70\u76d8\u5e76\u6301\u6709\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u88ab\u8d5a\u94b1\u6548\u5e94\u5438\u5f15\u8fdb\u6765\u7684\u6000\u6709\u4e0d\u5207\u5b9e\u9645\u6536\u76ca\u9884\u671f\u7684\u201c\u4e0d\u77e5\u60c5\u201d\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u968f\u7740\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u201c\u4e0d\u77e5\u60c5\u201d\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u961f\u4f0d\u4e0d\u65ad\u58ee\u5927\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6295\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6d3b\u8dc3\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u9010\u6e10\u4ece\u4e1a\u7ee9\u8f83\u597d\u3001\u5e02\u503c\u76d8\u5b50\u8f83\u5927\u3001\u5728\u56fd\u6c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6216\u8005\u4ea7\u884c\u4e1a\u5360\u6709\u4e3e\u8db3\u8f7b\u91cd\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u201c\u84dd\u7b79\u201d\u516c\u53f8\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u4e1a\u7ee9\u5e73\u5e73\u6216\u8005\u7cdf\u7cd5\u3001\u5e02\u503c\u76d8\u5b50\u5c0f\u3001\u7edd\u5bf9\u80a1\u4ef7\u4f4e\u7684\u4e2d\u5c0f\u76d8\u6216\u201c\u5783\u573e\u201d\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6c1b\u56f4\u7531\u6295\u8d44\u5411\u6295\u673a\u53d1\u751f\u8d28\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u201c\u77e5\u60c5\u201d\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u79bb\u573a\uff0c\u5e76\u5f15\u8d77\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5bf9\u524d\u666f\u770b\u6cd5\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u5206\u6b67\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5a92\u4f53\u3001\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u4e43\u81f3\u653f\u5e9c\u76d1\u7ba1\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u5c42\u4e5f\u88ab\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u70ed\u6d6a\u5377\u5165\u5230\u80a1\u5e02\u4f30\u503c\u662f\u5426\u5408\u7406\u7684\u53e3\u6c34\u6218\u4e2d\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u6709\u5173\u662f\u5426\u51fa\u73b0\u201c\u6ce1\u6cab\u201d\u5316\u7684\u4e89\u8bba\u767d\u70ed\u5316\u5230\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u65f6\uff0c\u672a\u52a0\u5165\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u201c\u4e0d\u77e5\u60c5\u201d\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u51b3\u7b56\u4e0a\u66f4\u4e3a\u8fdf\u7591\u548c\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u53c2\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5f00\u59cb\u611f\u5230\u7126\u8651\u548c\u4e0d\u5b89\uff0c\u5e76\u5f00\u59cb\u6000\u7591\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u52a8\u6447\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5bfc\u81f4\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4f9b\u6c42\u5173\u7cfb\u518d\u6b21\u53d1\u751f\u6f5c\u79fb\u9ed8\u5316\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5f53\u8fd9\u79cd\u53d8\u5316\u79ef\u7d2f\u5230\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u65f6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u88ab\u79ef\u7d2f\u5230\u4e86\u6700\u5927\u6781\u9650\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u542b\u4e49\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u5316\u6781\u5176\u4e25\u91cd\u65f6\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u653f\u7b56\u9762\u6216\u8005\u6d88\u606f\u9762\u7684\u7a81\u53d1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3001\u6216\u8005\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u60c5\u7eea\u7684\u53d8\u52a8\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u8f6c\u5411\u671d\u4e0b\u7684\u5bfc\u706b\u7d22\uff0c\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u9a7b\u8db3\u4e0d\u524d\uff0c\u73b0\u6709\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u88ab\u52a8\u6447\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5927\u7684\u5356\u538b\u5bfc\u81f4\u5e02\u573a\u4e70\u5356\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6025\u5267\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u5f00\u59cb\u52a0\u901f\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e8c\u3001\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u8eab\u5728\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u81ea2005\u5e74\u4e2d\u671f\u89c1\u5e95\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u5386\u7ecf\u4e8620\u591a\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u51e0\u4e4e\u672a\u66fe\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u81ea\u7136\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u76ee\u524d\u56fd\u5185\u6295\u8d44\u3001\u5b66\u672f\u548c\u76d1\u7ba1\u754c\u5173\u4e8e\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u5426\u51fa\u73b0\u6ce1\u6cab\u5316\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u4e89\u8bba\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u542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style=\"text-indent:0em; text-align:center;\"><img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/w20140416_14.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent:0em; text-align:center;\"><img src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/w20140416_15.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent:0em; text-align:center;\"><img 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\u6839\u636e\u300a\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7e41\u8363\u300b\uff08Irrational Exuberance\uff09\u4e00\u4e66\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u8036\u9c81\u5927\u5b66<\/p>\n<p class=\"more-link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/?p=4054\" class=\"themebutton2\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4054"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4054"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4054\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4054"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4054"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.jsvest.com.cn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4054"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}